Limburg, 28th December 2000
On 17th January 2001, OPEC will again discuss supply and pricing policy. In view of the past drop in prices, demands from the OPEC circle are intensifying to cut production again. It may also be significant that the price last Thursday of US $ 21.64 per barrel breached the lower limit of the US $ 22 to US $ 28 target corridor. If it remains constantly below US $ 22 for 20 working days, then production would automatically be reduced by 500,000 barrels a day.
Limburg, 18th December 2000
The crude oil price slide seems to have ended for the time being. The price is currently moving fairly near the centre of the US $ 22 to US $ 28 per barrel range, which OPEC has set as a target.
Meanwhile, after a pause of twelve days, Iraq has recommenced oil exports.
Limburg, 8th December 2000
The Iraqi export stop, as an attempt to blackmail the United Nations, became a blow in the opposite direction. Iraq had hoped that the supply drop by 2.3 million barrels a day (almost 4% of international market share) would lead to a further price rise towards US $ 40.00 per barrel. However, Saudi Arabia immediately sprang into the breach. The crude oil price fell and collapsed.
Only the previous week, the price of a barrel was US $ 30.92. On Monday, the price fell to US $ 28.28 per Barrel and on Tuesday it fell again to a four month low of US $ 26.58.
Limburg, 14th November 2000
Things have quietened down on the crude oil market. Prices are staying firmly above US $ 30.00 pro Barrel. On the market, the opinion is that crude oil supply from OPEC is currently no particular talking point. The previously agreed increases in production and the quota excesses of certain member states show that supplies of crude oil are sufficient.
Limburg, 25th October 2000
The price of crude oil is fluctuating heavily. On the surface, it is dependent on the events of the day. The next OPEC meeting in November is subject to increasing discussion. The market is obviously assuming that a further increase in supply quantities will be decided if the basis price holds out at over US $ 30.00 /barrel.
Limburg, 14th October 2000
The crisis in the Middle East has driven crude oil prices to new record heights. In September, the price in London stood at US $ 35.00 per barrel. This was the highest since the Gulf war in 1990.
The oil markets are reacting to massive market interventions, political concerns and speculations from forward traders. At the start of October in London, they fell to under US $ 30.00 per barrel after the US government opened its strategic oil reserve and launched 30 million barrels on the market.
Limburg, 3rd July 2000
Although OPEC decided on a slight increase in supply quantites at its meeting on 21.6.2000, crude oil will not become any cheaper this year. After the price rose beyond the US $ 30.00 per barrel mark for a time, it was just below (US $ 29.50) at the end of June. The OPEC members had agreed a range according to which the 20 day average oil price should not fall below US $ 22.00 or exceed US $ 28.00. However, the increase in supply quantities now agreed will only the previous quota excesses of certain cartel members. Supply is therefore certain not to increase.
Limburg, 30th May 2000
What will OPEC decide? Will supply quantities be increased?
After the temporarly drop in prices on the crude oil market, prices have risen sharply again in recent weeks. However, the high oil pice is also damaging for the supply countries, as consumers are using less and looking for alternative energy sources. Because of the temptingly high prices, there has been an intensive search for new deposits around the world and existing capacities have been extended. However, months and years will pass before supply can begin, such that no additional supply can be expected this year. Also, stocks are extremely low in the consumer countries and the next winter in the northern hemisphere is on the way.
Limburg, 28th April 2000
The crude oil market is currently extraordinarily quiet. A lull before the storm, or has the situation eased? Despite the externally very level price trend, any negative news could trigger severe price increases. The market is extremely unstable. OPEC members are under intense scrutiny to observe supply quantity quotas. After 90 % in September 1999 and 75 % in February this year, official communication states that the level of compliance was only 68 % in March.
Limburg, 11th April 2000
Crude oil prices have reached their lowest point of the year so far. In New York yesterday, prices reached almost US $ 24.00 per barrel and in London just US $ 22.00 per barrel. There is now speculation that OPEC may even continue to cut supply quantities. At the meeting on 27th March, no changes to supply quantities were decided.
Limburg, 7th March 2000
Crude oil prices shot up dramatically at the start of this week. The US $ 30.00 per barrel mark was significantly exceeded in London and in New York people were paying US $ 34.00 per barrel. This means that prices have therefore more than trebled since December 1998. Only shortly before the start of the Gulf war in 1991 have crude oil prices been higher than they are today. Back then, the price rose to US $ 42.00. Whether the OPEC members will increase their supply quantities to ease the price situation will be determined at the next meeting, on 27th March.
The € countries also have to struggle with the € weakness against the US $. This further increases the price of crude oil by around 20 %.
Limburg, 23rd February 2000
Crude oil is currently trading at just under the psychological mark of US $ 30.00. Just over 12 months ago, the price was just US $ 11.00 per barrel. Now, initial fears are being expressed that rising crude oil prices may have a negative effect on economic development. OPEC is being demanded to increase production as of the next meeting, on 27th March.
Limburg, 4th January 2000
Due to the unusually high discipline of OPEC members, the price of crude oil rose by a good 130 % in 1999. Since February 1999, the price has continued to rise. This trend appears to be unbroken. Prices now stand at around US $ 27.00 per barrel.
