Limburg, 29th December 1999

Despite hefty price increases in recent months, the international oil market is showing no signs of weakness. Experts even expect a further rise in the price of crude oil. However, the prerequisite of this is continued strict observance of oil supply quotas within OPEC member states. Furthermore, the oil stocks of western industrialised countries are depleted by seasonal influences. No OPEC revision of supply quotas is expected before next spring.

 

Limburg, 12th November 1999

Quotations for crude oil seem to have stabilised at the high price level. What will be next? Does the stabilisation represent announcement of consistently falling quotations, or - as most analysts assume - that the market is aiming further upwards due to seasonal factors? Experts disagree to what extent the expert countries joined under OPEC will adhere to the supply restriction set on 1st April 1999. The tendency observed in September of certain cartel members to increase production above their own quotas has apparently continued in October. Meanwhile, Venezuela has declared that the domestic oil economy could be affected by the "year 2000 problem" (Y2K), as some suppliers will no longer complete their preparations for the turn of the millenium on time.

 

Limburg, 1st October 1999

The crude oil price in dollars continues to reach new heights. Since its low of around 10 US dollars/barrel in February 1999, it has more than doubled. For manufacturers and consumers of oil and oil follow-up products in Europe, it is also relevant that the value of the Euro against the US dollar is significantly lower, which has the same effect as a further increase in price. As the OPEC member states are strictly observing the supply restrictions in place since 1st April, no short-term reduction in crude oil prices is expected. Analysts expect prices of 24-25 US dollars/barrel, as the impending winter in the northern hemisphere will further fuel the demand for crude oil.