Limburg, 29th December 2001
At the conference in Cairo, OPEC decided to set the supply quantity reduction at 1.5 million barrels a day. As, after initial hesitation, the non OPEC countires Russia, Mexico, Norway, Oman and Angola then finally agreed to a cut of around 462,000 barrels on their part, the supply quantity for the next 6 months will be reduced by around 2 mill. barrels a day. The reduction should lead to an oil price increase up to 20 to 25 dollars per barrel. In the end, expectation of the cut in supply quantities led to an increase in the current price for "Brent" type North Sea crude oil, such that on Friday it stood at 20.67 dollars - already 0.33 dollars above the value of the previous day.
Limburg, 27th December 2001
Crude oil prices are rising again. The North Sea brand, "Brent", has passed the 20.00 dollars per barrel mark and increased in price by 20% since mid November. The reason for the price rise is the general expectation that OPEC will actually implement the announced cut of 1.5 mill. barrels in supply quantity to 21.7 mill. barrels a day by 1.1.2002.
Limburg, 23rd December 2001
OPEC has convened a special meeting on 28th December in Cairo. This has caused general unrest on the crude oil market, since important and decisive information is expected in the course of this conference on whether the cartel is again in the position to gain control over the supply side of the oil market.
Limburg, 17th December 2001
The price of crude oil appears to be stable at a low level. In the past week, it retested November's low then started a slight recovery.
Limburg, 14th December 2001
The mood of the crude oil market is tense. The North Sea brand, "Brent" fell below the price of 18.00 dollars per barrel.
Limburg, 10th December 2001
From 1st January 2002, Russia wants to reduce oil exports by 150,000 barrels a day. After the announcement, the oil price rose to US $ 20.05 / barrel.
Limburg, 3rd December 2001
The dispute between OPEC and Russion on reduction of supply quantities is now entering its third week. The stock exchanges are now talking of US $ 15.00 / barrel as if it were completely normal. The market is looking anxiously to the second week in December, when Russia is expected to decide whether to fulfil OPEC demands for a cut in production quantities. If Russia is insistent, the oil price could collapse. However, even is Russia conceeds, there is no guarantee that the oil price will restabilise above the US $ 20.00 / barrel mark.
Limburg, 19th November 2001
Market observers are expecting a price war between Russia, Norway and OPEC, which has already reduced supply quantities three times this year, by a total of 3.5 mill. barrels a day. However, this would be of little help, as the non-members of the cartel have greatly increased their supply quantities to over 46 million barrels a day. Such rivalries led to the drop in oil prices in the mid 80s and since the early 90s. Looking at the current market, Kuwaiti oil minister Adel Kalidh al-Sabeeh would be unsurprised by an oil price drop to US $ 10.00 / barrel. The stock markets have already responded. In the evening, the price for crude oil stood at US $ 16.20 / barrel, the lowest in the last 2 years.
Limburg, 16th November 2001
OPEC only wants tor reduce production if the oil-producting non-member countries also reduce their supply quantities.
OPEC will cut the current production quanity of 23.2 million barrels by 1.5 million barrels a day "only on condition that the producers outside OPEC cut back their supply by 0.5 million barrels." OPEC is aiming for a price band of US $ 22.00-28.00. Whilst Mexico and Oman are intending to cut production, Norway completely rejects this and Russia - alongside USA, the most important supply country outside OPEC - is only prepared to reduce current supply quantity of 7 million barrels by the negligible figure of 30,000 barrels a day. Here, the opinion is that an appropriate price corridor is US $ 16.00 - 23.00.
Limburg, 14th November 2001
Crude oil prices have levelled off around the US US $ 20.00 / barrel mark and we look with interest towards Vienna, where OPEC is in discussions today. A general reduction in supply quantities by 1.5 mill. barrels a day is expected. At the forefront of the conference, the cartel has made efforts to move even the independent producers such as Mexico, Russia and Norway towards lower supply quantities.
Limburg, 2nd November 2001
In the past week, crude oil prices have continued to fall to just below the US $ 20.00 / barrel mark. This put them at their lowest since August 1999. Expert opinions differ significantly. Some expect OPEC to reduce production at the meeting on 14th November 2001 in order to stabilise the oil price, others are of the opinion that cheap oil is beneficial for he world economy in its current state.
Limburg, 1st October 2001
Since the Gulf crisis in 1990/91, the price of crude oil has not fallen as sharply as in the past week. The price fell to US $ 21.70 / barrel. Because of these price drops, OPEC did not implement the gneerally expected increase in supply quotas at its meeting on 26.9.2001. Production continues unchanged at 23.2 million barrels per day.
Limburg, 26th September 2001
The recently demonstrated slightly downward trends led to a price collapse in crude oil quotations on Monday. By the evening, the price of a barrel was around only US $ 22.00. There were no apparent concrete reasons for the collapse. However, discussions are focused on suppositions about the start of an international recession.
Limburg, 25th September 2001
By and large, the oil market has been reacting stably but with a slightly downward trend in recent days. Speculators o higher prices after the attacks in New York seem to have resigned. Also, OPEC has indicated that it will increase exprts in the even of supply interruptions.
Limburg, 13th September 2001
As expected, oil prices shot up immediately after the terrorist attacks. They were on the point of exceeding the important US $ 30.00 / barrel mark, then they quietened down the next day.The price levelled off at US $ 28.00 / barrel, which brought it to just above the position of Monday, 10th September 2001. After a long pause in recent weeks, there was again demand from the Americans on the European petrol market, which had pushed the oil price to US $ 27,00 / barrel even before the attacks. However, the forthcoming winter also plays a part in the relatively fixed oil prices, which will lead to increased demand for fuel oil.
Limburg, 11th September 2001
It was with dismay that we received the new and images of the attacks in the USA. We hope that the situation does not now escalate unpredictably. Initially, we expect a significant increase in crude oil prices, which will hopefully normalise again quickly. We will keep you informed.
Limburg, 3rd September 2001
Having been varied for weeks, the crude oil market is generally stable. On 1st September, the OPEC decision to cut supply quantities by 1 mill. barrels a day came into force. Attention must be paid to the behaviour of Russia as an oil exporter. Supply is currently being increased, a reduction in export duty has been decided. This will result in changes on the western European oil market. It may be that only North Sea oil and West African oil stocks are available to the American market in future.
Limburg, 30th July 2001
OPEC made a surprising decisino to reduce supply quantities by 1 million barrels per day on 1st September. This would take supply quantity to 23.2 million barrels per day. Nonetheless, crude oil prices have only risen slightly. It is assumes that the cut in supply quantities was decided due to fears of a further drop in prices. The oil price trend is generally dependent on the further trend of the world economy. Should it make a significant recovery in the second half of the year, then higher oil prices would be the result due to higher demand. However, the likelihood of an economic recovery is generally estimated as very low.
Limburg, 22nd July 2001
After a weak phase in which the price of crude oil fell to the lowest level since April this year in some places, it rose again in recent weeks. Amongst experts, the opinion is that OPEC is no longer following the officially laid down price band of US $ 22.00 - 28.00 / barrel, but rather trying to achieve a range of US $ 25.00 - 30.00.
Limburg, 9th July 2001
As expected, OPEC has not changed supply quantities. The reduction in crude oil prices in the second half of June was followed by a recovery phase. Movement is currently around a price level of US $ 27.00 / barrel.
Limburg, 2nd July 2001
As expected, the price of crude oil has dropped, although more significantly than expected. Recent quotations were below US $ 26.00 / barrel. However, no production decisions are expected before the OPEC meeting on 3rd July. Due to increasing drilling and stagnant or even falling consumption quantities, the supply of crude oil may be described as sufficient.
Limburg, 18th June 2001
Crude oil prices are moving just below the significant US $ 30.00 / barrel mark. It is currenly not generally expected that this mark will be exceeded. OPEC will meet again in approx. 3 weeks in arder to report on the market situation.
Limburg, 11th June 2001
Crude oil prices are remaining at the high level. Petrol prices on the American market, which recently reached reacord heights, have decreased significantly. Lower demand, due to the economy, high performance of American refineries, and the massive petrol purchases of American importers abroad initially seem to have eliminated the supply bottlenecks in America. Therefore, the price of crude oil could soon fall a little. However, the continuing inadequacy of refinery capacities are generating fears of shortages in fuel oil and fuel. In the light of economic growth of just 1.3 % the question has to be asked what would have happened to prices and provision if the growth had been greater. It is the international lack of refinery capacities, which cannot be quickly eliminated, and not OPEC supply policy which is the crux of the evil of increasing energy prices.
Limburg, 28th May 2001
Last week, there were isolated breaks in the US $ 30.00 / barrel mark. However, it was not possible to maintain a price level above this mark. The oil price today is moving at a significantly higher level than analysts expected months ago. Although refinery processing quantities for petrol are at record highs, there is no excess in supply of crude oil. Should demand for petrol on the American market drop, then falling crude oil prices are expected.
Limburg, 20th May 2001
Prices for curde oil are now just below the psychological US $ 30.00 / barrel mark. The petrol production capacities of the American refineries have long since been exhausted and the European refineries are working at full speed to supply the shortfall for the American market. The petrol shortage on the American market continues to keep the oil price high.
Limburg, 7th May 2001
Increasing petrol prices on the American market are pushing up prices for crude oil. The price of crude oil is currently US $ 25.00 - 30.00 / barrel, although upward spiralling threatens. Even OPEC wants to prevent an increase above this psychological mark, as this would further dampen the already weakened world economy.
Limburg, 17th April 2001
In the first two weeks of April, crude oil prices have already risen by a good US $ 2.50 dollars per barrel. The causes for this are the OPEC reduction in supply quantities and particularly the critically low petrol levels in the USA. The latest stock figures for the US market turned out to be more positive than expected. Crude oil stocks were even able to increase. However, the values in the oil trading places rose sharply. Since 1st April, the OPEC countries have been exporting approx. 1 mill. barrel less per day and takes OPEC supply performance to around 24.2 mill. barrels/day.
Limburg, 2nd April 2001
Crude oil values are currently moving within tight limits. However, analysts point out that seasonal influences would account for falling prices. The second quarter of the year is usually the period of lowest demand, during which the stocks depleted during the winter are built up again. Despite the fall in production applicable since yesterday, Fuller Markets in London believes that OPEC is losing more and more control of the oil market due to falling demand. At the end of 1998, cartel members had nothing more to lose at an oil price of US $ 10 per barrel when they drastically reduced supply quantities. Today, it all looks very different. The supply countries knew that the good times were over, which is why they could exceed their allotted supply quotas. Not unnotably, production also increased markedly in those countries not belonging to OPEC, due to the comparatively high prices. This would not change, as long as the oil price remained above the US $ 15 per barrel mark.
Limburg, 26th March 2001
Peace reigns again on the curde oil market. At the OPEC meeting on 16th March, a reduction of supply quantity by 1 mill. barrels per day from 1st April was set. Values finally rose moderately.
Limburg, 12th March 2001
On the crude oil market, prices have finally found themselves slightly under pressure. There is great uncertainty ahead of the OPEC meeting. Meanwhile, a reduction in supply quotas is expected.
Limburg, 26th February 2001
On the crude oil market, everything is becoming quieter. Values are fluctuating in the manageable range at a high level. The next three weeks will see a mood of conjectures about the results of the next OPEC meeting on 16th March in Vienna. At the moment, it looks like there will be no further reductionin production if the price remains above the guide level of US $ 25 per barrel. In London the price of a barrel was recently a good US $ 26.
Limburg, 12th February 2001
In the past week, the price of crude oil has again risen slightly. In New York valuations were again significantly above US $ 30.00 per barrel. OPEC seems to be happy with these current prices. high ranking representatives recently explained that no need was seen for a further reduction in supply.
Limburg, 19th January 2001
At its meeting on Wednesday, OPEC decided to reduce oil supply by 1.5 mill. barrels
to 25.2 mill. barrels per day from 1st February. This seems to have had no effect on crude oil prices, which are again moving at around US $ 25.00 per barrel.
